Notes from Damascus
I am in transit back from a week in Syria and wanted to summarize some of my impressions and recurring themes I heard from people across different communities and faiths.
I felt safe in Damascus, apart from Tuesday night when the Israelis bombed south of the city. There is still fighting with small groups of Assad loyalists in Latakia and Tartus, and armed bandits occasionally stop cars on the highways at night. However, walking anywhere in Damascus felt safe—even alone and in the evening.
The once-constant shakedowns that occurred when I lived in Damascus many years ago have stopped entirely, at least for now. I experienced no demands from police, informal checkpoints, minor officials, or others—for either locals or foreigners.
The markets are full of fresh fruit and vegetables from Turkey and Lebanon. Several people commented that the produce appeared within 24 hours of Bashar al-Assad scuttling off to Russia under Putin's protection. Assad's cronies, they say, had 'taxed' truck drivers so heavily that shipping goods had become unprofitable and had stopped. The borders are open now and goods are pouring in.
The infrastructure is battered after the civil war, and electricity is intermittent, but teams of people busy repairing and painting were everywhere. The Umayyad Mosque was bustling with painters and artisans preparing for the arrival of new traditional carpets—a gift from the government of Türkiye to celebrate the newly free Syria.
The vast network of Captagon labs has largely been destroyed. Assad's narco-state was fueled by the billions of dollars generated by the illicit trade of this addictive amphetamine-like drug. Assad monetized everything, from routine government tasks to smuggling. The black-market sale of Syria's antiquities was widespread. There are many rumors about state-sanctioned trafficking in human organs that are impossible to substantiate or refute at this point, but they arise in part from accounts of airline attendants who participated in flights moving prisoners to, and never back from, destinations outside the country—primarily Russia. The 'best case' explanation for these is forced labor.
Syria will need foreign investment. The Saudis and Qataris—and, to a lesser extent, the Chinese—are already in evidence fewer than three months after Assad's departure. The EU’s suspension of some sanctions last week will help, as will recovering even a small portion of the money Assad looted, though I suspect Putin has his hands on Assad's many offshore accounts.
The country is fragile but extraordinarily optimistic. People seem genuinely happy. It’s possible that too-slow improvement could turn the people against Al-Sharaa’s young government and toward more Islamist forces or that sectarian disputes could resurface, but there is absolutely no sign of that now. Syrians of all faiths who have been living abroad are streaming back, bringing their expertise and hard currency.
Assad’s government battered the population with the support of Russia and Iran. Estimates of the civil war’s death toll range from a low of 160,000 to over 600,000. The number of those missing is still unknown. Putin’s inevitable protection tax on all that Assad has looted will hamper Syria’s financial recovery. Iranian-backed Hezbollah may find its noxious footing again, and Israel may continue to bomb from the south. The obstacles to a free Syria’s success are widespread. But what if they manage to pull this off and build the country they want? It seems we should at least be pulling for them.
President and Founder, TRACE